Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are reporting larger asset levels, despite macro and geopolitical uncertainties prompting managers to adjust their strategies.
Sovereign wealth funds now manage more than $12 trillion in capital, according to research group SWF Institute, and are an important source of investment capital for many governments, with portfolio income often used to support social spending.
Growth in the sector has been astonishing, especially in the Middle East. SWFs managing hundreds of billions of dollars are being tapped by regional governments to finance major overhauls of national economies by regional governments. Six years ago, total SWF assets under management were $7.4 trillion. Now, industry specialist Global SWF expects that number to leap to $18 trillion by 2030.
Whether SWFs hit that forecast will depend on factors such as oil prices and how sovereign managers navigate a tumultuous era. Climate change, artificial intelligence, the world’s economy and geopolitical tensions are among the many challenges investors must confront.
Deal champions
SWFs now rank among the world’s biggest dealmakers and are courted by global financial institutions keen on fresh sources of capital and deal flow. This is especially true in the Middle East, where sales of natural resources have influenced regional SWFs. Saudi Arabia’s near trillion dollar Public Investment Fund is now the largest SWF dealmaker, headlining the three largest private markets deals of 2023 by a SWF.
Dig deeper though, and last year’s deal tally of around $125 billion reveals important insights into how managers have been repositioning portfolios in response to global uncertainty. While the number sounds impressive in comparison to 2018 which saw deals worth $66.4 billion signed, it was a 20% drop from 2022, when concerns about inflation, interest rates and geopolitical tensions started to bite.
SWFs are repositioning portfolios
Some SWFs have reduced exposure to China in the face of economic uncertainty. The world’s second-largest economy has pulled back from venture investing as rising inflation and interest rates upended valuation calculations. Venture capital investments by state-owned investors, a descriptor that includes SWFs, public pension funds and central banks, fell to $4.6 billion last year from $17.8 billion in 2022, according to SWF Global.
The interest rate environment also weighed on real estate and infrastructure allocations, with year-on-year transactions by value down 40% and 51% respectively. Residential real estate was especially hard hit with deal flow plunging by around 75% compared to 2023.
Trophy assets, such as skyscrapers and luxury hotels, have been replaced by a less favourable attitude towards global macro trends, with funding in growth areas like data centres and renewables holding up.
Last year, data centre deals by state-owned investors rose 150% year-on-year to hit a record $7.6 billion. At the same time, investment in industrial and manufacturing sectors rose 27% to $24.9 billion, with much of the focus on new battery technologies and low carbon processes.
Noted deals included PIF’s investment into DataBridge and India’s National Investment and Infrastructure Fund’s tie-up with Digital Edge, both of which came with ambitions to develop data centres in the SWFs’ respective countries.
SWFs also upped exposure to the U.S., Japan and India in recent years, according to Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. U.S. tech stocks have been a huge outperformer for SWFs, while India was sought after due to its compelling demographics.
A case in point, Temasek has said it plans to invest $10 billion into India over the next three years. In addition, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia wealth funds will respectively invest $75 billion and $100 billion into the world’s most populous country.
Private equity gains
Another area of asset reallocation has been private equity (PE), where SWFs assigned 12% of their portfolios to PE funds in 2024, data from Preqin showed. While that weighting is still lower than many pension funds, the allocation rate has steadily ticked higher since 2016 when it was just 8%.
One sign of how important SWFs are for private equity has been the spate of office openings in the Middle East as managers seek new LPs, co-investment partners and deal flow. While stolid names like Blackstone have been in the region for more than a decade, Ardian, Blue Owl, Brookfield Asset Management, CVC, General Atlantic, and HIG Capital are all among the firms to have opened offices there in the past three years, private equity research group Pitchbook recently noted.
The importance of SWFs for institutional investors will only continue to grow. If you’re interested in learning more about navigating the complexities of sovereign wealth funds, IQ-EQ can offer tailored, expert insight. Contact us today to learn more.
About the author
Ilias is IQ-EQ’s Global Head of Private and Institutional Asset Owners, based in Luxembourg. He has over 27 years’ financial services experience, including senior leadership roles since 2007 with responsibilities spanning the U.S., EMEA and APAC. Ilias drives IQ-EQ’s strategy, market and client understanding as well as the value creation for our clients through a focused relationship and servicing model.
